Author: nicneo925

5/31/24 Disaster

Had a great May and actually did some withdraw! However the last day went from +2k to -50k! Looking at my plan I failed at always using a stop loss, even on reentry! Definitely got complacent with adhering to max loss! Will have to be extra careful!

0DTE SPX Plan

News

Scheduled macro news + Premarket movers

Technical

Key support/resistance levels + Gamma levels + RTH/24 hours range

Entry

1st half day: S1 -> PCS, R1 -> CCS, neutral -> IC

Stop loss

Stop loss on individual spread at 1.0 – 1.5 loss

Re-entry

Same side: Should cover 24 hour range

Max loss day: $2k

Special watch

Major trend reversal: no ccs when bouncing from s2

New hope?

I had a great month then gave all profits back with the market correction, this is so similar to last year.

What went wrong? My emotions. In addition to the market one way trending, back and forth swings here are my sin:

1) fear of loss – can’t take loss.

2) greed – unrealistic goals and too much reentering.

3) lack of discipline – can’t stick to the rules.

Truth about 0dte iron condors : they don’t work well in high IV market. So the only way to survive would be not trading or take small losses.

When IV is high, we have to be creative:

1) reduce size

2) narrow spreads

3) ride the wave and enter only one side

4) careful about 1dte, may not do it at all

5) most importantly, take 3x loss and move on

When scalp goes wrong – Week 10

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New trades/adjustments

Date3/06
CycleMar/20
SymbolCOST
IVR78.03
StrategyIC
Strikesp:-$280/+$285 c:-$325/+$330
Price$1.85
PoP56%

Closed trades

CycleMar/20
SymbolSPCE
Total open price$1.42
Close price$1.24
Multiplier100
P/L$18

Daily Scalp

Date03/02/2003/04/2003/06/2003/02/20
SymbolSPXSPXSPXNDX
StrategyICICCr – CIC
Strikesp:-$3080/+$3075 c:-$3040/+$3045Multiple-$3020/+$3025Multiple
Price(o/c)$215/$500$370/$1000$55/0$510/-$2000
P/L-$285-$630$55-$1490
TriggerAnother huge move day! Early on the day SPX jumped up 2% so I thought ~4% is safe, however market proved me wrong. Market jumped again almost 4%! and my IC got wrecked. I finally started to trade the same direction as the market! Early I saw almost down 2% and set the call spreads at the high of the day. This is a disaster! Obviously I got greedy and traded too big! 2x $20 spreads! with SPX on at the same time, same direction! I did all I can to save the trade but couldn’t.

P/L Change

  • P/L Week: -$1822
  • P/L Year: +3012.5$(50.2%), including rolls and $1000 deposit($6k as base)
  • Total commission & fees: $770.48
  • P/L Year w/fees: $2242.02(37.367%)

With volatility expanding I got seriously hurt! I also made bad trades on scalp which give back all my gains this year! I also have to deposit more money to save my current positions. Not sure what I can do other than wait and hope volatility comes down, and with no enough capital to trade, I don’t know how or even if I want to put down more trades, although I know IV is high.

The fear on Coronavirus seems to be down a little, however panic selling continues and Fed rate cut didn’t work. I’ll probably start to invert some of my positions to cut loss.

Right now it does seem that adding static delta is a good idea, so I want to trade more daily expiration. However what I learned is that with violent move early during the day and super high IV, maybe I should trade the same market direction instead of fighting it?

I’m honored to witness the great panic – Week 9

Week 9 P/L

New trades/adjustments

Date02/2702/2402/2702/2702/2602/2502/252/282/272/272/272/272/272/272/28
CycleMar/20Mar/20Mar/20Mar/20Mar/20Mar/20Mar/20Mar/20Mar/17Mar/20Apr/27Mar/20Apr/17Apr/17Mar/20
SymbolTLTAMDAAPLSMHAALSPCEAPTAMZN/CLJ0MSFT/NGK0SMHTSLADISUVXY
IVR626710498
StrategyICICICICStrangleICShort C ICICICCr – PICICICLong put
Strikesp:-$145/+$140
c:-$155/+$160		p:-$50/+$45 c:-$55/+$60p:-$295/+$290
c:-$305/+$310		p:-$135/+$130 c:-$140/+$145p:-$23
c: -$26		p:-$20/+$15
c:-$45/+$50		-$15p: -$2000/+$1990
c: -$2030/+$2040		p:-$47/+$48 c:-$52/+$53p:-$160/+$155 c:-$180/+$185-$1.7/+$1.8p:-$135/+$130 c:-$140/+$145p:-$500/+$495 c:-$955/+$960p:-$110/+$105 c:-$140/+$145$16
Price$1.1$1.62$2.25$2.58$1.9$1.42$1.5$5.22$0.35$1.22$0.29$2.58$1.05$.93-$0.89
PoP43%86%71%68%25%

Closed trades

CycleFeb/25Mar/06Mar/26Mar/20
Symbol/NGH0/6EH0/NGJ0VXX
Total open price$.54$0.0009$.24$1.61
Close price$0.09$0.0004$0.1$.2
Multiplier10001250001000100
P/L$450$62.5$140$140

Daily Scalp

Date02/24/2002/26/2002/26/2002/28/2002/28/20
SymbolSPXSPXNDXNDXSPX
StrategyICICICICIC
StrikesMultipleMultipleMultipleMultipleMultiple
Price(o/c)$200/$0$100/$0$1148/0$506/$901$375/750
P/L$200$100$1148-$395-$375
TriggerHuge move every day! Tried to scale when IV is high with selling 2 quantity.Huge move again on Wednesday, was betting a reversal on Tuesday, so sold put part early. Again scaled in with 3 quantity! Super risky but somehow got lucky.Was betting a reversal by selling put early but didn’t get the move so managing all day… Was betting a reversal by selling put early but didn’t get the move. Got messed up by the last 3 minutes rally caused by short cover!

P/L Change

  • P/L Week: $792.5
  • P/L Year: +5344.5$(106.89%), including rolls
  • Total commission & fees: $674
  • P/L Year w/fees: $3558.06(93.41%)

This week is absolutely crazy! I was honored to witness the fastest 10% fall and daily movement was all over the place! I was not too mad about myself since I have been mechanical and balancing delta and I really got my 1st big down day on Thursday. However short delta is not enough and I got hurt by vol expansion. Many positions are in mgmt mode.

I did learn a big lesson on scalping: when market in panic mode, don’t trade early or too big, and keep enough buying power! Don’t break rules by putting on trades -1 day since overnight move is too great.

Market feels heavy, added trades – Week 8

Week 8 – P/L

New trades/adjustments

Date02/2002/2102/1802/1802/1802/1802/1802/1802/1802/1902/2002/2102/21
CycleFeb/21Feb/21Mar/20Mar/20Mar/17Mar/26Mar/06Mar/20Mar/20Mar/26Feb/25Mar/20Mar/20
SymbolTSLATSLAAAPLAMZN/CLJ0/NGJ0/6EH0AMDSPCE/GCJ0/NGH0MSFTSMH
IVR43392949511003710072
StrategyIFCr – CICCr – CICCr – CCr – PICCr – CCr – C ICICIC
Strikesp:-$850/+$845
c:-$850/+$855		-$910/+$915p:-$295/+$290
c:-$340/+$345		-$2320/+$2330p:-$47/+$48 c:-$57/+$58-$2.05/+$2.15-$1.08/+$1.0775p:-$50/+$45 c:-$65/+$70-$45/+$50-$1665/+$1675p:-$1.85/+$1.75
c:-$1.9/+2.0		p:-$160/+$155 c:-$195/+$200p:-$135/+$130 c:-$157/+$162
Price$4.53$0.43$1.16$1.28$.26$.24$.0009$1.00$.72$1.3$.54$.74$1.09
PoP64%68%70%61%67%70%80%74%%68

Closed trades

CycleFeb/21Feb/21Feb/21Mar/20
SymbolTSLATSLATSLAAAPL
Total open price$2.85$4.53$.43$1.03
Close price$5.01$4.91$0$.54
Multiplier100100100100
P/L-$216-$38$43$49

Daily Scalp

Date02/19/2002/21
SymbolNDXSPX
StrategyCr – CCr – P
Strikes-$9750/+9760-$3320/+3315
Price(o/c)$118/$0$55/$0
P/L$118$55
TriggerNDX had a big gap up early during the daySPX had a big drop early during the day

P/L Change

  • P/L Week: $11
  • P/L Year: +$3807(76.14%), including rolls
  • Total commission & fees: $505.08
  • P/L Year w/fees: $3558.06(66.04%)

I left money on the table for /cl, but it’s okay – Week 7

Week 7 P/L

New trades/adjustments

Date02/1102/1102/1102/1102/13
CycleFeb/25Feb/14Mar/20Feb/21Mar/20
Symbol/NGH0/CLH0AMZNTSLAROKU
IVR70
StrategyICICCr- PICIC
Strikesp:-$1.8/+$1.7
c:-$1.9/+2.0		p:-$52/+$51 c:-$52/+$53-$2000/+$1990p:-$715/+$710 c:-$850/+$855p:-$100/+$95 c:-$180/+$185
Price$0.45$0.47$1.85$3.51$1.05
PoP76%

Closed trades

CycleFeb/14Mar/20Mar/20Feb/21Mar/20Mar/17Feb/21
Symbol/CLH0PINSROKUFBUBER/CLJ0TGT
Total open price$.47$1.1$1.05$.99$1.17$.28$2.27
Close price$.35$.55$.55$.34$.59$.14$1
Multiplier10001001001001001000100
P/L$120$55$50$65$58$140$127

Daily Scalp

Date02/12/20
SymbolNDX
StrategyCr – C
Strikes-$9630/+9640
Price(o/c)$95/$0
P/L$95
TriggerNDX had a big reversal, so betting that it should exhaust itself.

P/L Change

  • P/L Week: $710
  • P/L Year: +$3969(79.38%), including rolls
  • Total commission & fees: $410.95
  • P/L Year w/fees: $3558.06(71.16%)

TSLA madness – Week 6

Week 6 P/L

New trades/adjustments

Date02/0302/0402/0502/0502/0402/0602/06
CycleFeb/21Feb/21Mar/20Feb/14Feb/21Mar/20Mar/20
SymbolTSLATSLAAMZN/CLH0DISPINSUBER
IVR100100
StrategyIFICICICCr – PStrangleStrangle
Strikesp:-$625/+$620
c:-$625/+630		p:-$715/+$710 c:-$1170/+$1180p: -$1930/+$1920
c: -$2030/+$2040		p:-$52/+$51
c:-$53/+$54		p:-$135/+$130p:-$18
c:-$28		p:-$32
c:-$44
Price$2.85$2.63$4.51$0.35$0.75$1.1$1.17
PoP21%16%78%75%

Closed trades

CycleFeb/21
SymbolDIS
Total open price$.75
Close price$0.3
Multiplier100
P/L$45

Daily Scalp

Date02/03/2002/05/2002/07
SymbolSPXNDXNDX
StrategyCr – CIC – LCr – C
Strikes-$3280/+3290Multiple-$9480/+9490
Price(o/c)$55/$0$8.66/$2.52$103/$0
P/L$55$614$103
TriggerSPX had a big jump the first hour of trading, betting it won’t go up to 2%./NQ had a huge run on Tuesday so started the trade earlier than usual… which turned out to be very risky since Wednesday morning /NQ continued to run up almost 1%! Had to adjust 10 minutes after opening, which is not a good sign either. Finally had to fight the trade all day long and putting 2 of the $10 trades to get credits. After a long tiring fight, I got lucky since the close price almost pinned at my Iron Fly. Looking back my original trade should have worked just fine. Another big lesson to stay with my rules!/NQ has a rally of almost 1% since opening, so betting the price won’t go up more than the resistance line.

P/L Change

  • P/L Week: $817
  • P/L Year: +$3106(62.12%), including rolls
  • Total commission & fees: $357.34
  • P/L Year w/fees: $2748.66(54.97%)